Two new polls confirm strong lead for Socialist Party days before May 11 election
Two separate national surveys released just days before Albania’s May 11 parliamentary election show the ruling Socialist Party (SP) on track for a comfortable victory, while the Democratic Party (PD) and its allies suffer major losses. Both the Piepoli poll for Report TV and the McLaughlin & Associates survey for Top Channel point to a clear trend: Prime Minister Edi Rama’s party remains dominant, while new political forces are poised to enter parliament.
Why this is important: If confirmed on election day, the projections would give PS a comfortable victory and a fourth consecutive term in power while signaling a reshuffling in Albania’s political spectrum.
What the numbers show: According to Piepoli, the Socialist Party, with 50.5% of the vote is projected to win 75 mandates—up one seat from the 2021 elections—enough to govern alone without a coalition. The DP-led coalition “Alliance for a Great Albania,” under Sali Berisha, is forecast to win 37% of the vote which translates to just 54 seats, down from 63 in 2021.
Meanwhile, two new parties—Adriatik Lapaj’s “Shqipëria Bëhet” and Agron Shehaj’s “Mundësia”—are both expected to clear the electoral threshold. Lapaj is projected to win 7 seats, Shehaj 3. This marks the first time in years that parties outside the SP-DP duopoly gain real parliamentary presence, apparently benefiting from the weakness of DP.
The McLaughlin poll, commissioned by Top Channel, closely mirrors these results. It puts SP support at 49.9% nationally, compared to 34.9% for the DP-led alliance. “Mundësia” leads among new entrants with 5.3%, followed by Lapaj’s movement at 3.3%.
In key districts: In Tirana, Albania’s largest and most influential district, both polls show SP expanding its lead. Piepoli gives the Socialists 19 mandates (up from 18 in 2021), while PD drops to 14 seats. Lapaj wins 3, and Shehaj 1.
In Elbasan and Durrës, the two main parties lose ground to newcomers. Lapaj and Shehaj each pick up one mandate per district. SP remains dominant in Fier, Vlora, and Gjirokastër, while DP manages to hold its ground in Shkodër, Kukës, and Lezhë—albeit with a smaller share of the vote.
What this means: If the projections hold, the May 11 vote will reaffirm the Socialist Party’s control of parliament for a fourth term, while marking a setback for Berisha’s opposition bloc. The emergence of Lapaj and Shehaj as legitimate political actors suggests a growing appetite for alternatives on the right, although their share remains modest.
Meanwhile, parties like Lulzim Basha’s “Euro-Atlantic Coalition” and Arlind Qori’s “Lëvizja Bashkë” appear unlikely to win any seats.
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