Report TV Piepoli poll: Socialists projected to gain in Tirana and Shkodër as Berisha’s bloc loses ground

A new poll by the Piepoli Institute in partnership with Report TV projects electoral shifts in two of Albania’s most critical battlegrounds ahead of the May 11 elections—Tirana and Shkodër. The findings suggest that the ruling Socialist Party (SP) may increase its parliamentary presence, while the opposition led by Sali Berisha appears to be losing momentum.

Why is this important: The districts of Tirana and Shkodër together account for 48 parliamentary mandates, making them decisive in shaping the next government. The Piepoli survey shows that the Socialist Party is on track to win an additional seat in Tirana compared to 2021, while the Berisha-led coalition could lose up to four seats there. In Shkodër—long considered a stronghold of the right—PS is also projected to make gains, signaling a potentially significant political realignment.

Tirana projections: According to the poll, the Socialist Party is polling between 47–49% in the capital, securing 18 to 19 seats—up from 18 in the 2021 elections. Berisha’s coalition, “Alliance for a Grand Albania,” is projected to drop from 17 seats in 2021 to just 13 or 14, with vote share between 33.5% and 35.5%.

Two emerging parties are expected to make a breakthrough in the capital. Adriatik Lapaj’s “Shqipëria Bëhet” coalition is polling between 7.5% and 8.5%, which would translate into 2–3 seats. Agron Shehaj’s “Mundësia” is also expected to clear the threshold with 5–6% of the vote, securing 1–2 seats. In contrast, Tom Doshi’s PSD is projected to lose its sole seat in Tirana, and other minor parties—including Lulzim Basha’s coalition—are not expected to win any mandates.

Shkodër projections: In the Democrat bastion of Shkodër, SP is polling between 34% and 36%, translating to 3–5 seats—up from 3 in 2021. Berisha’s coalition remains the largest force but with weakening support, polling between 42.5% and 44.5%—enough for 4–6 seats, compared to 6 previously.

Tom Doshi’s party, which won 2 mandates in the district in 2021, is projected to retain up to 2 seats but could lose one depending on final turnout. Adriatik Lapaj, meanwhile, is also emerging as a contender in the northern district, with 6–7% of the vote and the potential to secure up to 2 seats.

Public sentiment: The poll also sheds light on voter sentiment. In Tirana, 42% of respondents say they are satisfied with the government’s performance, compared to just 26% in Shkodër. Meanwhile, 64% of voters in both districts say they do not trust Berisha’s opposition bloc. New opposition parties also face credibility issues, with 64% of Tirana voters and 65% of Shkodër voters expressing distrust.

What’s next: With just two weeks to go, the Socialist Party appears to be consolidating its position, while Berisha’s bloc is under pressure from both the ruling party and newly emerging challengers. Tirana and Shkodër are set to be key battlegrounds on election day.