Rama and Berisha both claim victory ahead of May 11 elections

With 25 days to go until Albania’s parliamentary elections, both Prime Minister Edi Rama and opposition leader Sali Berisha are publicly confident their camp will win. Rama is seeking a fourth consecutive term, while Berisha aims to return to power after 12 years in opposition.

Why is this important: A wave of pre-election polls has projected a clear lead for the ruling Socialist Party (SP), showing it in position to form a government without needing a coalition. But Berisha and his allies dismiss the findings as manipulated, insisting that internal polling favors the opposition. The dispute over numbers sets the stage for a campaign increasingly defined by competing claims of momentum and legitimacy.

Context: Speaking at a campaign event, Rama said he expects the Socialist Party to win more than the 74 seats it secured in 2021 — comfortably above the 71 needed to govern alone.

Berisha, while not providing a specific seat target, has described a “sure victory,” comparing it to the 1992 election that ended the communist regime. The historical reference signals his aim to cast the 2024 race as a pivotal national turning point.

Polling debate: Multiple polling firms contracted by Albanian media have released surveys over the past several weeks showing the SP well ahead of DP. Berisha and the Democratic Party (PD) have labeled these polls as biased or bought, claiming their internal data tells a different story.

Meanwhile, broadcaster Top Channel has announced it has commissioned John McLaughlin, a well-known American pollster who worked for Donald Trump and is credited with accurate forecasts during U.S. presidential elections. Rama acknowledged McLaughlin’s track record but hinted that his arrival in Albania may have been arranged by Chris LaCivita, the American strategist running the Democratic Party’s campaign.

“He’s a super pollster,” Rama said, “but I’m curious to see his results here… we’ve been polling the Albanian public monthly for 12 years and we know the trends well.”

A track record of accurate predictions: Over the years Rama and the Socialist Party have gained a reputation for making accurate predictions about election results, often in the face of media and pundit forecasts that underestimated support for SP and predicted tighter results. In 2021, for instance, the Socialist Party correctly projected it would win between 74 and 78 seats, despite several polls and exit surveys predicting it would fall short of a 71 majority. Given this track record SP has projected confidence in its internal polling apparatus, which Rama says guides not only campaign strategy but also government decision-making.

According to Rama, the party’s internal research structure tracks public sentiment, reactions to policy proposals, and approval trends, helping the government anticipate risks and plan its legislative agenda.