Much anticipated McLaughlin & Associates survey confirms Socialist lead, dashes opposition conspiracy claims

A much-anticipated election survey by John McLaughlin—the pollster known for his work with Donald Trump and strategist Chris LaCivita—has reaffirmed the dominance of Albania’s ruling Socialist Party ahead of the May 11 elections. The results were broadcast Monday night on Top Channel and immediately sparked political debate, with DP supporters clearly frustrated by the results.

Why is this important: The survey not only reaffirms internal polling by the Socialist Party but also aligns with several other independent polls that have predicted a landslide victory and fourth consecutive term for Rama’s government. Prime Minister Rama has previously praised McLaughlin as an “excellent pollster,” referencing his accuracy during U.S. presidential elections—particularly in predicting a Trump win when most others did not. For the opposition, it now becomes that much harder to maintain its claim that it is on track to win the elections.

Context: For weeks, the Democratic Party and its leader Sali Berisha had been pushing the narrative that the double-digit lead shown in multiple polls for the Socialist Party was the result of manipulated, “bought” surveys. They placed their hopes on the much-anticipated McLaughlin survey to reveal “the truth.” Instead, the poll showed precisely what previous data had suggested: a clear, double-digit lead for Edi Rama’s Socialist Party.

According to the McLaughlin & Associates poll, based on door-to-door interviews with a representative sample of 1,200 Albanians during January and February, the Socialist Party leads with 49.2% of the vote. The Democratic Party follows with 35.7%.

When asked about political preference, 50.5% of respondents named Prime Minister Edi Rama as their most favored politician. Berisha trailed with 36.1%, while Adriatik Lapaj, leader of the “Shqipëria Bëhet” movement, ranked third with 8.5%.

Reactions: On Tuesday, the Prime Minister commented on the survey. While he touched on the results, he devoted most of comments to the controversial reactions of political commentators known for their support for or affiliation to DP who were invited to the studio during the Top Channel broadcast to discuss the results. Several visibly agitated analysts, taken aback by the results, argued that many of the citizens surveyed might not have expressed their true opinions due to fear of government pressure and “authoritarianism.”

Rama, in turn, dismissed the analysts as “pseudo-experts” disconnected from reality, accusing them of pushing delusional narratives:

“Their conclusions were crazy, one crazier than the other. One of the conclusions was that the people are sick! In other words, the Albanian people are a sick people for thinking their country is moving in the right direction! Another conclusion was that this is an autocracy. An autocracy where they can discuss such crazy ideas every night! These guys have no idea what an autocracy is or they would know that if this was an autocracy they would not be able to come on television and tell the people they are sick!”

About the survey: The McLaughlin survey also included a question about national direction. According to the results, 50.7% of respondents believe Albania is heading in the right direction. Meanwhile, 47.5% think the country is on the wrong path, of which 23.1% believe the situation is going in a “very wrong” direction.

What’s next: McLaughlin & Associates plans to release additional survey data three weeks before election day. Final projections will be published just days ahead of the May 11 vote.

As it stands, this latest survey may serve as a decisive blow to opposition narratives and solidify the Socialist Party’s momentum heading into the final stretch of the campaign.