Report TV poll projects deep Socialist Party victory in Elbasan

The monthly poll conducted by Report TV focused on Elbasan, revealing that the Socialist Party (SP) retains its dominant position in the district ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections. If elections were held today, SP would secure 8 mandates and possibly a ninth, maintaining its 2021 results. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party (DP) risks losing 1-2 mandates compared to the last elections, while smaller parties may capture a seat for the first time.

Why is this important: Elbasan has traditionally been a critical battleground in Albania’s parliamentary elections. In recent cycles, SP has steadily consolidated its position, and the latest poll indicates its dominance remains unchallenged. However, as DP struggles with declining support, the district’s political landscape could shift. This erosion of traditional opposition support presents an opportunity for smaller, emerging parties to challenge the two-party status quo.

Context: Elbasan is Albania’s third-largest electoral district. In 2021, it elected 14 MPs, though the number of mandates for 2025 may change after a review of voter lists. Historically, DP had strongholds in Elbasan, but over the past decade, support for the party has waned, allowing SP to emerge as the dominant force.

In the 2021 parliamentary elections, SP secured 8 mandates, while DP won 6. Leading up to 2025, the opposition faces significant challenges, including fragmentation, infighting, and the imprisonment of key leaders on corruption charges.

SP has appointed Arbjan Mazniku, the Minister of State for Local Government, as its campaign leader. A seasoned strategist and former Deputy Mayor of Tirana, Mazniku brings extensive experience to the role. Conversely, DP’s campaign has faced turbulence, appointing a new and inexperienced leader after the imprisonment of its original choice, Ervin Salianji, for his role in the “Babale affair.”

Voter Breakdown:

• Socialist Party (SP): Projected to receive 60.9% of the vote, maintaining strong support across demographics.
• Democratic Party (DP): Trails at 34.3%, reflecting a significant drop from its 2021 performance.
• Smaller Parties: Collectively garner 2.7%, slightly higher than in 2021.

SP enjoys particularly strong support among women, with 63.4% favoring the party. In the diaspora, SP’s support surges further, with 66% of emigrant voters declaring their backing.

Smaller parties and potential upsets: While Albania’s political landscape has long been dominated by SP and DP, smaller parties now have a realistic chance of capturing a mandate in Elbasan. They appeal to younger voters who are increasingly disillusioned with traditional political options. The opposition’s ongoing crisis further creates opportunities for these smaller parties to gain traction.

What’s next: The poll results suggest a difficult road ahead for the Democratic Party, which must address internal divisions and regain voter trust to avoid further losses in Elbasan. SP, with its stable voter base, appears poised to reinforce its dominance. However, the potential rise of smaller parties introduces an unpredictable element to the district’s dynamics, signaling a potentially competitive 2025 election.

Elbasan’s history of electoral tensions also looms over the upcoming elections. In 2021, incidents involving DP’s informal “vote protection” structures, led by Gazment Bardhi, resulted in violence, including the killing of an activist during a confrontation. How DP reacts to its projected losses in the district will likely influence the tone of the 2025 race.