Edi Rama signs “Memorandum II” in Kuç, projects at least 78 mandates for the Socialists in May 11 elections

With just three days to go until Albania’s parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Edi Rama returned to Kuç in the southern district of Vlorë to reenact a symbolic move he made during the 2021 campaign. In front of supporters, he signed what he called the “Memorandum II,” predicting a minimum of 78 mandates for the Socialist Party—four more than it secured in the last election.

Why is this important: The gesture underscores Rama’s confidence in securing a historic fourth term and a wider parliamentary majority. He made a clear distinction between what he sees as 100% certainty for the minimum of 78 seats and a 50% likelihood of reaching 88. “This is not fortune-telling, not the lottery—this is a memorandum,” Rama said, quipping that it should be preserved as a document of historical importance.

Context: Rama’s appearance in Kuç mirrors a similar event in 2021, when he made public predictions for the Socialist Party’s electoral outcome on a white tablecloth in the same village café. At the time, most commentators and opposition figures dismissed his forecast of an outright majority as unrealistic—many arguing that no party in Albania could ever win a third mandate and no party in Albania could ever win an absolute majority alone. But the SP won exactly 74 seats, as Rama had predicted.

This consistent divergence between Rama’s projections and those of his critics has become a hallmark of recent elections. While analysts hostile to Rama often forecast losses, his campaign strategy—grounded in regular polling and tightly managed focus groups—has produced strikingly accurate outcomes. The Kuç projections, now repeated for a second time, have become a ritual of electoral forecasting with symbolic weight for his supporters.

According to Rama’s new projections, the Socialists are guaranteed their current 74 seats and will add at least one more each in Dibër, Shkodër, Elbasan, and Fier. He sees further possible gains in Kukës, Lezhë, Durrës, Tiranë, and Vlorë—where he anticipates some districts may deliver up to two additional mandates.

What else: Rama illustrated his prediction on a cloth table cover, drawing up a full list of district-by-district outcomes and even sketching an owl—his signature jab at opposition leader Sali Berisha, whom he mockingly refers to as “the owl of the swamp”—which he crossed out with a red marker. In a light-hearted moment, he presented the café owner with a symbolic “European passport” and thanked local residents for their support, calling one of them “the guardian of the memorandum.”

He concluded by inviting others in attendance to sign the cloth beside his signature. “This is the number—somewhere between 78 and 88,” he said. “It won’t be less, and it may well be more.”