Piepoli survey shows Socialist Party leading, DP struggles, new political forces show potential

With three months remaining until Albania’s May 11 parliamentary elections, a new survey by the Italian polling institute Piepoli, in collaboration with Report TV, has provided the first snapshot of voter intentions. The results suggest that the Socialist Party (SP) maintains a strong lead, while the Democratic Party (DP) faces challenges in key districts. At the same time, new political forces are emerging as potential disruptors in the political landscape.

Why is this important: This is the first pre-election poll measuring support for political parties in Tirana and Durrës, two of the country’s most significant electoral districts. The results indicate that SP remains dominant, the DP is struggling, and newcomers are gaining ground. Additionally, the poll measured the voting preferences of Albanian expatriates in Italy, revealing their potential influence in the upcoming elections.

Results: According to the Piepoli survey, the Socialist Party remains the leading political force in both Tirana and Durrës, while the Democrats continue to lag behind their past performances.

·       In Tirana, PS is projected to win between 17 and 19 mandates – out of 37 – with 44-48% of the vote.

·       The DP is estimated at 36-40%, translating to 12-14 mandates.

·       Shqipëria Bëhet, led by Adriatik Lapaj, is projected to secure 4-8%, or 1-3 mandates.

·       Mundësia, founded by Agron Shehaj, follows closely with 3.5-7.5%, also competing for 1-3 mandates.

·       Bashkë, the leftist movement led by Arlind Qori, is projected at 2.5-6.5%, making it a potential contender for up to 2 mandates.

In Durrës, the results present a similar trend:

·       PS is leading with 49-53% of the vote, translating to 6-8 mandates.

·       PD follows with 37-41%, potentially securing 4-6 mandates.

·       Shqipëria Bëhet is polling at 2-6%, with a possibility of 0-2 mandates.

·       Mundësia and Bashkë are polling between 1-5%, making them contenders for a single mandate each.

One of the biggest surprises in the survey is the decline of the Freedom Party, led by former president Ilir Meta. The party, which secured 2 mandates in Tirana in 2021 under the name Socialist Movement for Integration, is now projected to win zero seats, its support too low to be reported separately.

Diaspora vote in Italy: For the first time, the Piepoli survey also measured voting preferences among Albanian expatriates in Italy, offering insight into how the diaspora vote could impact the elections.

·       SP is projected to receive 48-52% of the diaspora vote, solidifying its lead.

·       PD follows with 30-34%, maintaining its position as the second force.

·       Shqipëria Bëhet is expected to gain 5.5-9.5%, making it a strong third force among expatriates.

·       Mundësia is polling at 3.5-7.5%, in close competition with Shqipëria Bëhet for third place.

·       Other smaller parties, including Bashkë and Nisma Thurje, are below 2% among voters in Italy.

What else: The collaboration between Report TV and Piepoli marks the sixth consecutive election cycle where their surveys have provided early voter insights—consistently predicting election outcomes with high accuracy.