Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti cautioned that peace and democracy in the Balkans are at risk if Russia succeeds in Ukraine. In an interview with Associated Press, Kurti emphasized the importance of Western unity to prevent a scenario that could embolden Serbian expansionist ambitions in the region.

Why is this important: Kurti’s warning underscores the regional stakes tied to the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. With Serbia maintaining close ties to Russia, Kurti suggests that a victorious Russia could destabilize not only Kosovo but also Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and possibly North Macedonia.

Key points from the Interview:

1.      Balkan stability: Kurti highlighted that the past 25 years have been unprecedented in terms of peace, freedom, and democracy in the Balkans. However, he warns that these gains could be reversed if Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine, given Serbia’s relationship with Moscow.

2.      Serbia’s role: Kurti expressed concern that a strengthened Russia might embolden Serbia to pursue its “expansionist ambitions,” potentially leading to instability across the Balkans. He specifically mentioned that Serbia’s influence could threaten the sovereignty of Kosovo and other countries in the region.

3.      September 2023 attack: Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia remain high. In September 2023, a group of armed Serbs attacked Kosovo police in Banjska, killing a police sergeant. This incident has further strained relations and hindered the EU-mediated dialogue for normalizing relations.

4.      Russian influence: Kurti noted that Serbia’s close ties to Russia amplify the risk, especially as Serbia is one of the few European countries not to impose sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion. He warned that Putin could see a victory in Ukraine as an opportunity to destabilize the Balkans further.

5.      Serbian response: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić recently stated that Serbia is not aligned with either Russia or the U.S., affirming Serbia’s independent stance amidst increasing international scrutiny.

Context: Kurti’s statements reflect Kosovo’s long-standing concerns over Serbia’s influence and Russia’s role in the region. Western unity in support of Ukraine, Kurti argues, is vital to safeguarding Balkan stability and preventing potential escalation of regional conflicts. This is not an isolated view. Many countries in the Balkans have long warned of Russian interference and efforts to foment tensions and conflict by exploiting ethnic or religious fault lines.