2025 Elections: Socialists and Democrats engage in unequal battle for grey electorate

As Albania gears up for the 2025 spring elections, the traditional rivals that have dominated Albania’s political scene for much of the past three decades, Edi Rama’s Socialist Party and Sali Berisha’s Democratic Party, are focusing their attention on the “grey electorate”—voters who are undecided on which side to support or are disappointed with the political situation in the country.

Background

Over the last decade, the number of disillusioned voters seems to have increased. The Socialist Party is aware of the risk that after 12 consecutive years in power, political fatigue may set in among its supporters and broader electorate. Nevertheless, the Socialist Party has maintained strong organizational structures despite 12 years in power.

The Democratic Party on the other hand, is currently embroiled in one of the worst crises of internal disarray and public distrust in its history. Following its 2021 parliamentary defeat, the party has suffered several setbacks, including Sali Berisha’s designation as “persona non-grata” by the U.S. and UK due to corruption. The internal divisions between Berisha and Lulzim Basha’s factions have further worsened the party’s standing, while Berisha and his son-in-law’s arrest on corruption charges have given another dramatic hit to the Democrats.

Taken together these issues have severely weakened the Democratic Party and benefited the Socialists who have consistently won every single election—both parliamentary and local—since 2011.

Next steps

In recent internal discussions, the Socialists emphasized the importance of attracting undecided voters. According to their internal polling, the gap between the Democratic Party and the Socialist Party has widened in favor of the Socialists. In preparation for the elections that may win them a potential fourth term, the Socialists have been working hard and coming up with new ideas and solutions in order to open the party to younger blood and new members. Just recently, it launched two new initiatives. One is a drive to recruit new candidates for MP by launching an online platform open to all, called the “Member of Parliament we want.” The other, is the establishment of a separate national party assembly dedicated to youth, a unique structure in the history of Albanian politics. These initiatives and others before them have served to re-energize and expand the Socialist base. 34,000 new members have joined the party.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have struggled with fragmentation and weak structures after 12 years in opposition. With a shrinking base, weakened structures, out of ideas and new proposals, the Democratic Party seems to be running around in circles, its only concern assisting Sali Berisha and his family through their problems with the law. Unable to reform, they have turned to their familiar tactic of organizing protests, aiming to force Rama’s resignation and push for a technical government to oversee the 2025 elections.

Takeaway

Such strategies have consistently failed to solve the Democrats problems. In 2017 for instance, despite an agreement that allowed the Democrats to appoint technical ministers and to control the State Police and all strategic institutions that could have advantaged the party in power, they still lost the elections to the Socialists who scored one of their most significant victories.

Moreover, Rama, the Socialists, the Albanian public and Albania’s international partners seemed to have had enough of the Democratic Party’s attempts to disrupt the political process through protests and ultimatums. In 2019, when the Democrats took the unprecedented decision of burning their parliamentary mandates and boycotting local elections, hoping to force Rama and Albania’s international partners to accept their terms or be faced with a serious political crisis, the strategy backfired spectacularly.

Both the Socialists and Albania’s key partners, the U.S. and EU, refused to yield to the Democrat’s threats. The Central Election Commission replaced the boycotting opposition MPs with others from the Democratic Party’s own lists, allowing the Socialists to implement key parliamentary reforms, including constitutional amendments. The Socialists also ran unopposed in the local elections, securing control of all 61 municipalities, further consolidating their power. The Democratic Party and the opposition in general had taken a serious hit from which they have never completely recovered.

The Democratic Party’s ongoing internal turmoil, combined with Berisha’s legal troubles, has further alienated its supporters, especially among the grey electorate, a significant part of which consists of young professionals and educated voters who are more likely to critically evaluate a party’s political platform and proposals and reject tensions and conflict. Unless the Democrats find the way to move on from repeating strategies that have repeatedly failed in the past, they will have severely diminished their appeal to this crucial voting bloc.